Uber is launching Self Driving Cars in Pittsburgh!

To many ads? Support ODJT and see no ads!
I can see driverless tech being in almost every car in 5-10 years, and it getting better. And that's without laws or insurance incentives.

Airbags, ABS and disk brakes, fuel injection, rear window defoggers..common in every car today. You can't buy a car without them.

I had a 63 ford ..no heat/windshield defrosters, no windshield wipers, no door locks - ALL were optional 50 years ago. Unthinkable today.

Many kids today don't bother to get their drivers' licenses - it's not the big deal it was 40 years ago. They are much more accepting of tech than us old farts, I mean, well, yeah.

As for future jobs...
trains used to have a crew of 5..now it's 2 or often 1. Maintenance on trains also dropped damatically with diesels replacing steam.

What is your car doing now? Sitting. My truck costs me $450/month payment, 100/month insurance, tires, oil changes, cleaning, turnpike tolls and of course gasoline. Hundreds a month.

if a car would come for $5 and take me to work, $50/week(there/home). I need to go drinking and take the family out - 4 trips. Grocery/errands say 6 more a week. Another $50.

That's $400/month...2/3 what I pay now. And I pay for two vehicles. this could easily replace one of them.

So 1/2 the cars will go away...fleet maintenance is much less labor intensive than general public - you don't need billing or sales people, display space, signage...as many places..lots of jobs are being reduced.

I've seen elec tesla's on the PA turnpike..the new X will do 250 or so miles on a charge. the $40,000 model 3 is due out next year. Apple is spending tons on a car..not for retail sales I assure you. And google., and ford. Every company will have a hybrid or plug in in the next year or 2. Prius is by no means the only one to choose from anymore.

And that's by LAWs, not consumer demand.

Who knows how fast things might change...driverless cars don't need parking (they can leave town, be shared, etc). So maybe the cost of urban parking gets really nasty (worst that is now..here's it's $15/day..not to hard to justify an uber ride!) - london already has a city fee for driving there, if you can even do that at any cost. So elec /self drivers CAN..well, more incentive to get one.

And I bet a lot of people will like them - be that for my soon to be driving kid (harder for him to crash) or for commuting (who likes to sit in rush hour traffic? let the car drive, you can nap, read, etc).

It's gonna be like cell phones and the net or cable tv - in 20 years it will be the norm.
 
Cost is still an issue ..

To do driverless, you need multiple radars, sonar, lidar and excellent GPS .. not everycar has those and they cost $$s. Many cars still have mechanical linkages to steering, gas and brake .. you need all electronic versions to be able to control by computer.

It will require all new vehicles .. and that transition, if it starts in a few years, will take decades to happen. Uber and other vendors have it easier in that they will be using all new cars and trucks. Unless there are mandates (and there may be at some point if it shows a benefit) or incentives (which will cost somebody), it won't happen overnight.

Driverless cars still need parking .. they aren't continuously running. They will make sense first in cities - replacing cabs, where the environment is easier to control .. then on long-haul routes for moving packages and freight .. then in mass transportation .. then it might trickle down to individuals.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeff Romard, Dan The Man, ittigger and 1 other person
a typical car design cycle is 5 years, give or take. it's not gonna take long to change all cars to drive by wire, steer by wire.

the average age of a car in the US is 11.5 years. So 12 years, give or take, and it's a new fleet..add 5 from now to get all new cars designed with drive by wire..so under 20 years, no problem.

I KNOW people will take their car to the mall and get let off at the door and say 'go park'...and they will. IF there is parking..if not, they'll circle or something. And in a downtown area? You bet your ass that people will just get out and send their car to 'wait till i call you back'...I GUARANTEE people will do this.

Gas? Some don't care. There is a guy at my weekly pistol league that brings his dog and leaves him in the running car..for 3 hours. Goes home, drops him off and meets us for dinner. Really? Really.

I bet if your car has an alarm your insurance is less.
I bet if your car has the radar auto stop feature you're insurance is less.

Backup cameras are mandatory by law now. ANY car have them 5 years ago? I bet damned few did.
Same for tire pressure monitors.
 
IceBurghDJ said:
a typical car design cycle is 5 years, give or take. it's not gonna take long to change all cars to drive by wire, steer by wire.

the average age of a car in the US is 11.5 years. So 12 years, give or take, and it's a new fleet..add 5 from now to get all new cars designed with drive by wire..so under 20 years, no problem.

I KNOW people will take their car to the mall and get let off at the door and say 'go park'...and they will. IF there is parking..if not, they'll circle or something. And in a downtown area? You bet your ass that people will just get out and send their car to 'wait till i call you back'...I GUARANTEE people will do this.

Gas? Some don't care. There is a guy at my weekly pistol league that brings his dog and leaves him in the running car..for 3 hours. Goes home, drops him off and meets us for dinner. Really? Really.

I bet if your car has an alarm your insurance is less.
I bet if your car has the radar auto stop feature you're insurance is less.

Backup cameras are mandatory by law now. ANY car have them 5 years ago? I bet damned few did.
Same for tire pressure monitors.
Click to expand...
Won't take long to get it in .. WILL take long to get them bought .. OR .. for existing vehicles to be removed from service.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeff Romard and ittigger
It will be quite a while before it makes sense to take a cab ride everywhere. The rides won't be an equivalent of $5 today.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ittigger
IceBurghDJ said:
I can see driverless tech being in almost every car in 5-10 years, and it getting better. And that's without laws or insurance incentives.

Airbags, ABS and disk brakes, fuel injection, rear window defoggers..common in every car today. You can't buy a car without them.

I had a 63 ford ..no heat/windshield defrosters, no windshield wipers, no door locks - ALL were optional 50 years ago. Unthinkable today.
Click to expand...

Believe it or not, not all new vehicles come with 4 wheel disc brakes. You can also still get manual roll up windows and locks.

IceBurghDJ said:
I bet if your car has an alarm your insurance is less.
I bet if your car has the radar auto stop feature you're insurance is less.

Backup cameras are mandatory by law now. ANY car have them 5 years ago? I bet damned few did.
Same for tire pressure monitors.
Click to expand...

Backup cameras and TPMS is not mandatory. Plenty of vehicles rolling off the factory do not have either. No idea about the insurance but I doubt it. Most modern cars have a 'chipped' key, which is supposedly better than an alarm, I don't think that brought anyone's insurance costs down.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeff Romard
ittigger said:
Believe it or not, not all new vehicles come with 4 wheel disc brakes. You can also still get manual roll up windows and locks.


.
Click to expand...

I didn't think you could get a car with Roll Up Windows in 2016 as none of the cars I see dealers carry have roll up windows. BUT, there is validity to your comment. I went to Chevrolet and looked at the base model LS Spark and it's $12,600 BASE BASE price, and they show the interior with roll up windows. I guess it depends how the dealers order the cars. Dealers order all their cars with power because no one wants roll up windows these days...I bet a real base LS model Spark at $12,600 with Roll Up windows is hard to find sitting on a dealer lot.

Power windows is STANDARD on 97% of vehicle models these days though. You really have to go to the below $15,000 models still on the market to find roll up windows.

My 2002 Mitsubishi Lancer ES has power windows, power mirrors. However, the brakes are DRUM brakes I also have 14" wheels on that car.
 
I don't know how or why they do it, but there's obviously still a market for it if people are buying them. Rental fleet's often have roll up windows too - and not just in the sub compacts.

Compact pickups (under 1/2 ton) often have rear drum brakes as well.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeff Romard
My insurance company will give me a decent discount if I get a dash cam with front AND rear views...

I've been looking around for one.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeff Romard
DJ Ricky B said:
I didn't think you could get a car with Roll Up Windows in 2016 as none of the cars I see dealers carry have roll up windows. BUT, there is validity to your comment. I went to Chevrolet and looked at the base model LS Spark and it's $12,600 BASE BASE price, and they show the interior with roll up windows. I guess it depends how the dealers order the cars. Dealers order all their cars with power because no one wants roll up windows these days...I bet a real base LS model Spark at $12,600 with Roll Up windows is hard to find sitting on a dealer lot.

Power windows is STANDARD on 97% of vehicle models these days though. You really have to go to the below $15,000 models still on the market to find roll up windows.

My 2002 Mitsubishi Lancer ES has power windows, power mirrors. However, the brakes are DRUM brakes I also have 14" wheels on that car.
Click to expand...

Some F150's and Ram 1500s have them. Some places charge extra for roll ups too because it's not the standard anymore

Yes, You Can Still Buy a New Car With Manual Windows
 
  • Like
Reactions: ittigger
  • Like
Reactions: dunlopj and Jeff Romard
ittigger said:
Believe it or not, not all new vehicles come with 4 wheel disc brakes. You can also still get manual roll up windows and locks.

4 wheel disk are not on every car, but you can't find one without disk on the front.
Last manual windows or locks I saw, other than say a wrangler, was on a 1993 taurus.


Backup cameras and TPMS is not mandatory. Plenty of vehicles rolling off the factory do not have either. No idea about the insurance but I doubt it. Most modern cars have a 'chipped' key, which is supposedly better than an alarm, I don't think that brought anyone's insurance costs down.
Click to expand...
Techinically true..for now..on the cameras.
NHTSA to require backup cameras on all vehicles

not so for the TPMS
Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; TPMS; Controls and Displays. Final Rule.
 
Backup cameras are pretty cheap to make (assuming the dash has the requisite display) .. tougher to implement the computer code to do something with that data.
 
IceBurghDJ said:
you have to pay a driver today..and pay for his car.
When you have an all self driving elec fleet..I can see costs going down and competition increasing.
Click to expand...

Yes, so can I. I just can't see the price going that low. There is still high end computer equipment that needs to be maintained, transportation maintenance, insurance.

It sounds like you believe all of the costs for these vehicles will be just like cars today, but without having to pay a driver. I disagree. I believe the upkeep on an unmanned car with be considerably higher. Just the damage alone that some people will cause will be much greater. They will make a bigger mess. Who is going to clean them? How often? It will only take one time for you to get into an unmanned vehicle where the passenger before did something that the cameras didn't pick up to cause you to never get in one again.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jeff Romard, IceBurghDJ and ittigger
Not sure I care if there is or isn't a driver in a taxi .. the benefits of the technology are more for accident avoidance (although we see how far that got Tesla in FL), and I can see a need for long haul work, where the computer doesn't get tired and drive the bus or truck into something they shouldn't. Driving me home after a night out would also be nice, but at what cost?

I doubt the economics make it feasible for everyone for a minimum of a decade or 2.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Scott Hanna
DJ Ricky B said:
I didn't think you could get a car with Roll Up Windows in 2016 as none of the cars I see dealers carry have roll up windows. BUT, there is validity to your comment. I went to Chevrolet and looked at the base model LS Spark and it's $12,600 BASE BASE price, and they show the interior with roll up windows. I guess it depends how the dealers order the cars. Dealers order all their cars with power because no one wants roll up windows these days...I bet a real base LS model Spark at $12,600 with Roll Up windows is hard to find sitting on a dealer lot.

Power windows is STANDARD on 97% of vehicle models these days though. You really have to go to the below $15,000 models still on the market to find roll up windows.

My 2002 Mitsubishi Lancer ES has power windows, power mirrors. However, the brakes are DRUM brakes I also have 14" wheels on that car.
Click to expand...
actually you can by a base model spark new for $8995 I just did, had a daughter going to college made more sense to get her something with a warranty since she will be several hundred miles away, roll up you own windows, shift your own gears and lock your own doors but it's got Bluetooth connectivity, and A/C,
 
  • Like
Reactions: ittigger and steve149
business...you spend $5k on gear and use it once a week and replace it for fun..not because you wore it out.
If you could work the gear twice a day 7 days a week the per-gig cost of the gear would be a fraction of what it is now, even if you have to replace it as it wears out.

Look at tractor trailers - used ones have 400,000 miles on them, they often run 1,000,000 miles or more. that's 6 or 7 times as long as your car lasts- so the per mile cost of the vehicle is a lot less.

As an uber driver now you use your car..it's designed to last 150k miles..the new dedicated ones with no drivers will be more like the tractor trailers (or transit buses) - double the cost but 5 times the life - cheaper per mile, so costs GO DOWN.

And what the uber partner told me was under the new self driving deal is a partner can buy 5 vehicles - so a 'driver' today has one car working and all his time is spent in that car driving - the new deal will have him sitting at home while 5 cars work for him.
 
IceBurghDJ said:
business...you spend $5k on gear and use it once a week and replace it for fun..not because you wore it out.
If you could work the gear twice a day 7 days a week the per-gig cost of the gear would be a fraction of what it is now, even if you have to replace it as it wears out.

Look at tractor trailers - used ones have 400,000 miles on them, they often run 1,000,000 miles or more. that's 6 or 7 times as long as your car lasts- so the per mile cost of the vehicle is a lot less.

As an uber driver now you use your car..it's designed to last 150k miles..the new dedicated ones with no drivers will be more like the tractor trailers (or transit buses) - double the cost but 5 times the life - cheaper per mile, so costs GO DOWN.

And what the uber partner told me was under the new self driving deal is a partner can buy 5 vehicles - so a 'driver' today has one car working and all his time is spent in that car driving - the new deal will have him sitting at home while 5 cars work for him.
Click to expand...
That only works where there is volume .. I bet Uber gets 3 calls a day in my town .. if that.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back